Emirates’ Chief Talks About the Future of Aviation

This week, YuGo attended the inaugural Arabian Travel Market Virtual (ATM), where Emirates Airlines’ president gave his views on social distancing, the recovery of the aviation industry and the future of flying. Editor Marissa Carruthers gives her views on what was said.

As the world starts to emerge from months of lockdown and we stumble along a path towards the unknown “new normal”, there are many questions on people’s minds.

When will travel resume? What will travel look like? And, most importantly, how can I travel safely? While no-one truly knows what the new world will look like in these unprecedented times, social distancing in airports and on aircraft are being mooted and heavy sanitising and safety precautions on the ground and in the air, are being introduced.

Frequent flyers will have been gasped with horror when reading reports that these new measures could lead to an average of four-hours to pass through customs and immigration, and exorbitant prices as carriers bridge the economic gap caused by capping capacity.

Speaking at a webinar during ATM, Sir Tim Clark , Emirates’ president, said social distancing on aircrafts is not a viable option. He said measures such as leaving out the middle seat “pointless”, adding if social distancing measures were to be put in place they needed to be consistent.

He noted: “There’s no point leaving the seat next to you empty because if someone in the seat behind you coughs, then it makes no difference as it will still travel 20 feet down the cabin.” To achieve this, it would mean cutting aircraft capacity by up to 50 percent – financially unviable for carriers, whether short- or long-haul.”

This is a sentiment echoed by Wizz Air CEO, Joszef Varadi , during another ATM webinar. He said these measures are impractical and will not work. “There is no scientific evidence to suggest any passengers have contracted the virus while flying. In fact, the air filtration on-board aircraft is comparable with an intensive care unit.”

Instead, Clark said until there is a vaccine it’s essential to build passenger confidence and implement strict safety measures. For example, Hong Kong International Airport has rolled out a series of measures , such as using enhanced cleaning technology including robots and body disinfection booths to protect passengers and staff.

In the air, Emirates has put in place strict protocols, including PPE (personal protection equipment) uniforms for cabin crew, and the distribution of personal hygiene kits containing gloves, masks and sanitiser to passengers. Cabin service attendants from the 380 have been relocated to 777 aircraft to sterilise toilets every 30 minutes during flights. Additionally, air filtration systems change the air every two minutes.

Clark is hoping these stringent measures will be sufficient to instil passenger confidence without social distancing measures being put in place. And that’s the big question. Will this be enough to encourage people to kick-start their travel plans once planes hit the skies once again?

Undoubtedly, there will be those eager to get off the ground, but they will be few. Once they have spent a few months testing the water, there will no doubt be a second wave of travellers who have seen it is safe and after so long grounded are desperate to explore beyond borders.

One thing that’s for sure is travel is going to remain tricky until a vaccine is found. Clark noted it’s impossible to make estimations about when travel will kick-start, but Emirates is working towards resuming to some form of normality by summer 2021 – if a vaccine is found and global inoculation programmes are rolled out in Q1 2021.

He said: “If we can get a massive global inoculation programme going by Q1 2021, and I think we have a fighting chance of that, we will start to see by summer of next year quite a large uptick in demand for travel both on short-haul and for airlines such as ourselves.”

Despite this glimmer of hope, Clark added Emirates estimates business will not resume to pre-coronavirus levels until 2023/24. Even if travel is safe, it will take time before the millions economically impacted by coronavirus have the spare cash to splash on a holiday. However, until mandatory quarantines are lifted, stringent health and safety measures rolled out and a vaccine is found, the next chapter of the aviation industry remains unknown.

The Road to Recovery for the Aviation Industry

As more aircraft start returning to the global skies, a study has revealed as supply outstrips demand airlines face a long road to recovery and reaching profitability.

Passengers wearing masks boarding a plane

The findings follow on from a study by Cirium, which was presented at a recent webinar hosted by Rob Morris, global head of consultancy, as he outlined the challenges ahead for the aviation industry.

Ciricum said with the Covid-19 pandemic the worst crisis the aviation sector has seen, a networked community response is essential as the industry’s recovery begins. However, Morris noted the journey ahead is full of uncertainties.

Morris shared data that presented a global capacity increase from -80 percent at its peak drop at the start of 2020 to around -20 per cent by the end of June. He added that airlines could make further adjustments to these flight schedules depending on the changing environment surrounding coronavirus.

Glimmers of hope in the Chinese domestic market, which has seen more than 30 per cent of its capacity return in the last two months, indicate positive signs for short-haul travel recovery.

However, the dramatic drop in capacity globally compared with 2019 remains in stark contrast to the forecast from IATA in December last year, which projected capacity growth of more than 4.7 percent in 2020.

Flight Cancellations

Fleets are grounding all across the world / World Economic Forum

Cirium’s flight status data revealed about one-fifth of adjusted flight schedules globally are being cancelled on a near-term basis, underscoring significant uncertainty.

In light of the data, Cirium raised the possibility of cancellations being due to lack of demand as consumer confidence drops. Similarly, despite the recovery in China’s domestic capacity, the plateau could indicate that consumer confidence has yet to pick up.

The positive side is aircraft are starting to return to service and Cirium noted an uptick in domestic capacity in certain regions. Morris indicated that a “bottom point” has been hit for aircraft being grounded, the hibernation phase has begun and passenger jet tracking data for May 4, 2020 shows a positive trend emerging.

Cirium’s “seven-day prior metric” shows active aircraft have increased by six per cent, flight cycles by 14 per cent, and hours flown by 13 per cent, compared with a week before on April 27, 2020.

However, year-on-year, active aircraft are down by 72 per cent, flight cycles by 82 per cent, and hours flown by 84 per cent, compared with May 6, 2019.

Additionally, aircraft utilisation remains dramatically lower than pre-Covid-19 levels for in-service jets, with single-aisle aircraft usage down 43 per cent on average since the start of year, said Cirium.

While the uptick in passenger jet flights is modest, Cirium noted it is encouraging to see aircraft returning to service. In particular, twin-aisle aircraft are returning to service, now down just 29 per cent on the start of the year, and the analysis here suggests these aircraft are being used for freight.

With tracked aircraft hours down, Morris explained that planning the required post-lockdown fleet will be complicated.

“It’s almost impossible to say when the bounce-back will start or end, and it would be unwise to speculate. Ultimately, it is airlines that will be in the best position to track the recovery as they assess their forward booking data,” he said.

As the aircraft going in to storage has passed its peak, Cirium is classifying the current phase as the hibernation phase. About 13,700 aircraft, 62 per cent of the global passenger fleet, still remain parked around the world as of May 4, 2020.

However, more than 2,600 passenger jets have returned to service since March 1, with 31 per cent originating from the China domestic market as travel restrictions have eased in the country.

Challenges Ahead

Near-empty flights in the U.S. / Getty Images

Airlines face a number of hurdles to getting planes back in the air, not least an ageing passenger fleet, according to Cirium.

Only 113 aircraft built between 2001 and 2016 have been stored for more than one year, excluding Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft, which were grounded before the pandemic.

There are more than 2,000 stored aircraft built in or before t 2000. These jets may never return to service or could get a second lease of life, albeit as converted freighter aircraft.

The current demand scenario will likely result in premature retirements, particularly for stored wide-body aircraft built between 2001 and 2005, such as Airbus A340s and Boeing 777s.

Some owners will choose to monetise their assets and “part-out” jets that they no longer deem profitable as in-service aircraft.

The challenge of returning aircraft to service is also magnified by the geographical diversity and number of unique locations in which aircraft are currently parked around the world, Morris added.

A total of 719 different locations globally are home to one or more single-aisle or twin-aisle passenger jets.

More than a fifth of the global in-storage fleet is parked at the top 20 locations, 23 per cent by aircraft units and 27 per cent by aircraft value.

Top locations include Roswell International Air Center, Victorville Southern California Logistics Airport, Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport, Istanbul Airport, and Hong Kong International Airport.

Only three of the top twenty locations globally are “typical” storage facilities.

With many aircraft stored at commercial airports rather than storage locations, if storage is prolonged, many will need ferrying to more suitable locations to mitigate risk of corrosion.

Long-term Predictions for the Aviation Sector

A health worker sprays disinfectant at Noi Bai airport in Hanoi / Reuters

Morris concluded that supply will inevitably outstrip demand for the foreseeable future, with aircraft being retired earlier than planned or subject to a part-out process as owners try to recoup costs.

As such, airlines face a long haul to return to profitable operations. It will take time to get aircraft flying again as demand lags behind capacity – and even longer to return to 2019 levels.

The sector is slated to shrink in the short-term but the current outlook helps identify the route to a planned and predictable recovery for the aviation industry, with urgent need for a networked community response.

How Travel Will Resume in A Post-coronavirus World

Experts predict travel will take up to two years to recover once Covid-19 has been given the all-clear.

A passenger wearing a surgical mask at the Hong Kong International Airport. Ivan Abreu/Getty Images

Global travel specialists Atmosphere Research Group (ARG) and other leading industry players believe recovery will be gradual, rather than a fast bounce back. And they claim it will be heavily led by domestic tourism.

Research from ARG also reveals airlines will rebuild their networks, starting with key routes. There will be a strategic focus on building capacity using smaller and more fuel-efficient aircrafts. This includes the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 rather than aircrafts such as the double-decker Airbus A380.

Recovery Time

According to ARG, once coronavirus is declared “under control”, the next six to nine months will see what the organisation refers to as “tiptoe travellers” venture out.

Air Asia will resume domestic flights in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, India and Indonesia

ARG predicts while this segment will include some business travellers, it will be led by personal and leisure trips. These travellers will be “better educated” and come from high income groups. This will mainly be domestic and short-haul trips.

Between eight and 16 months, ARG predicts a wave of “pioneer” travellers. This will be led by business travel and mid- to high-tier frequent flyers with a household income of US$125,000 or more. They will venture out on more long-haul flights.

From 12 to 18 months, there will be a rush of “fast followers” as the industry receives strong bookings from business travellers and premium flyers. It is during this period, ARG expects business travel to resume to the new normal.

At 16 to 24 months after Covid-19 is under control, ARG believes leisure travel will truly return and reach between 80 to 90 percent of pre-virus volume.

Changes to How We Travel

According to an article in Forbes, there will be huge changes to airport regulations and restrictions.

Foreign travelers wearing masks at Beijing International Airport in Beijing, China. Jason Lee | Reuters

Steps under consideration include scrapping cabin bags, lounges and automatic upgrades. The use of face masks and surgical gloves will be mandatory and minimising face-to-face contact will be achieved through self-check-in and self-bag-drop-off.

Immunity passports, on-the-spot blood tests and sanitation and disinfection tunnels are also expected to become the norm. Demarcation spaces for social distancing, thermal scanning and having bags sanitised will also be essential measures to restore confidence in flying.

Experts predict this could lead to a four-hour period to clear check-in and immigration.

Boarding is predicted to become touchless, with digital options such as facial recognition being mooted. On airplanes, there will be blocked seats, electrostatic spraying, and the use of PPE and masks.

Food is expected to be scrapped on short-haul flights. Airlines are considering light refreshments for long-haul flights. Hong Kong Airlines has decided to stop serving any food on its flights.

On arrival, SimpliFlying forecasts passengers will need to show an immunity document or passport to border control agents. The International Air Transport Association is also recommending thermal testing.

In a recent report, the World Tourism and Travel Council said: “There will be new protocols for check-in involving digital technology; hand sanitiser stations at frequent points including where luggage is stored; contactless payment instead of cash; using stairs more often than lifts where the two-metre-rule can be harder to maintain; and fitness equipment being moved for greater separation, among other examples.”